Title twist? Why Guardiola's disastrous record at Tottenham may give Postecoglou & Arsenal hope

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There's been lots of talk over the last few weeks about the dilemma facing Tottenham this Tuesday. Spurs face title challengers Manchester City, knowing that if they get a result against the holders, rivals Arsenal would be in pole position to claim the Premier League title. Many Tottenham fans have admitted they would rather lose the game than hand the Gunners their first championship in 20 years. Aston Villa's comeback to draw 3-3 against Liverpool on Monday night means that Spurs' hopes of finishing in the top four remain alive, but they would now need to take all three points against Man City to stand any chance.

Since coming to England, Pep Guardiola has pretty much bulldozed through everything in front of him. Five Premier League titles, four League Cups, and three FA Cups, but one place he hasn’t had complete control is going to North London to play Spurs away. Astonishingly, Guardiola has lost all four of his last encounters playing Tottenham away in the Premier League. In those five fixtures Man City haven’t even scored. So there is hope that Spurs can pull off and upset to get a result and subsequently help bitter rivals Arsenal in the title race.

Guardiola’s record against Tottenham

Since Guardiola came to England, he has lost just 38 Premier League games from 302 matches. Six of those have been to Tottenham. That’s more than any other team has beaten the Spaniard in the English league. When you isolate just the games where Spurs have been at home, it makes for even bleaker reading for Man City fans, and even more promising reading for the Spurs contingent (if they actually want to win this Tuesday). In all competitions, Guardiola has a terrible record away to Tottenham. Six losses from nine games, and an overall score of 10-5 in Spurs’ favour.

The last time Guardiola won away at Tottenham in the Premier League was a 1-0 win in October 2018. Mauricio Pochettino was manager that day. In fact, Spurs have had seven managers since Man City last won at their place in the league. When analysing just why going to Tottenham has been the kryptonite in denying Guardiola complete dominance, it’s first worth noting that three of those five defeats came when either José Mourinho or Antonio Conte was in charge at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium. Managers known for their defensive counter attacking tactics. They were able to defend for their lives and hit the Sky Blues on the counter and punish them with the quality of the likes of Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son.

However, now Tottenham have a different approach. Under Australian Ange Postecoglu, Spurs have been a fearless, front footed if a little naive team. They play with an extremely high line, they press from the front and they take the game to the opponent. This isn’t quite the tactic that has seen Tottenham have success against Guardiola in the past, but they can take a lot of confidence from the 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture at the Etihad this season under Postecoglou.

As you can see above, from all the teams that Guardiola has faced as a manager in 10 or more games, the Spaniard has the second lowest average against Tottenham (1.58ppg). Guardiola only has a worse record against Liverpool (1.27ppg). He has faced Tottenham 19 times, and won less than half of those games - a bad record by Guardiola's ridiculously high standards. Remarkably, Postecoglou is also the only manager currently in charge of a Premier League team that Guardiola has failed to beat in the English top-flight. All the other 19 managers have been on the end of a loss against the Spanish tactician, including Crystal Palace's Oliver Glasner, who was only appointed in February. Perhaps some extra motivation for the Australian to avoid defeat this Tuesday.

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